Tuesday, November 6, 2007

Relative Risks of Uterine Rupture

The greatest concern for women who have had a previous cesarean is the risk of a uterine rupture during a vaginal birth. According to the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG), if you had a previous cesarean with a low transverse incision, the risk of uterine rupture in a vaginal delivery is .2 to 1.5%, which is approximately 1 in 500 (1).

Here are some probability statistics for you:

Your risk of dying in a car accident, over the course of your lifetime, is between 1 in 42 and 1 in 75. This is roughly 4 to 5 times greater than the risk of uterine rupture.

You're about twice as likely to have your car stolen (that's an annual risk) than to experience a uterine rupture.

Your odds of being murdered are 1 in 140 over the course of your lifetime. That's 2 times more likely than the risk of rupture.

The annual risk of having a heart attack is 1 in 160, 2 times more likely than rupture. Your risk of dying from heart disease is roughly 1 in 6, or 55 times greater than your risk of rupture.

If you're a smoker, your risk of dying from lung cancer is 1 and a half times more likely than a VBAC mom rupturing during her labor.

You're about 17 times more likely to contract an STD this year than you are to have a uterine rupture; more likely to contract gonorrhea than to rupture, as well.

You're 13 times more likely to get food poisoning than to rupture.

You're more likely to have twins than a uterine rupture. Odds of twins: 1 in 90. That's about 3 1/2 times the likelihood of rupture.

If you ride horseback, you're 3 times more likely to die in a riding accident than you are to experience a uterine rupture.

If you ride a bike on the street, you are 4 times more likely to die in an accident (annual risk) than you are to suffer a rupture.

Having a serious fire in your home during the next year is twice as likely as experiencing a rupture.

You're ten times as likely to win at roulette as you are to have a uterine rupture.

If you flip a coin, you'll be more likely to get heads (or tails) 8 times in a row than to rupture.

The risk of cord prolapse is 1 in 37 (2.7%), or nearly ten times more likely than that of rupture (2).

Sources: 1. ACOG Practice Bulletin, No. 5, July 1999,
2. http://www.gentlebirth.org/archives/vbacrisk.html


Pam and Anders said...

Still scared, but I appreciate the statistics. It adds a bit of perspective.

Kat said...

I would LOVE to reprint this entry on my blog and link to you. This ROCKS! Gives me lots to say to those who worry about uterine rupture.

River Eden Doula said...

Someone pointed out on a yahoo group I frequent that the risk of miscarriage after amniocentesis is 60 per 1000... compared to the risk of 3 or 4 per 1000 for VBAC. But you don't see OBs ranting about how dangerous that is!